Newly declassified CIA documents reveal that US intelligence officials believed Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda were considering attacks against the United Kingdom several years before the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
The documents, released by the CIA to mark the 25th anniversary of 9/11, include intelligence assessments dating back to the late 1990s. Among them is an August 28, 1998, briefing titled “Bin Ladin Terrorist Network Still a Threat,” which indicated that bin Laden was considering further attacks against both the United States and the UK.
The memo was compiled following US cruise missile strikes against Al-Qaeda-linked targets in Sudan and Afghanistan. It stated that, shortly before the strikes, bin Laden was exploring options for additional attacks.
“Hours before the US missile strikes, Bin Laden was looking at options for further attacks against the US as well as the UK.”
However, the document noted that bin Laden had not identified specific targets or a timetable for any potential attacks.
The assessment also identified a US embassy in an unnamed country as a possible target and said an individual had been authorised by bin Laden to investigate potential attacks inside the United States.
Another intelligence memo produced later in 1998, titled “Significant Near-Term Threat of Bin Ladin Attacks,” said US officials had indications that bin Laden wanted to attack the United States and allied countries on their own territory.
“We have strong indications that he would like to attack the US and allies such as the UK and Israel on their own soil.”
The memo added that if bin Laden considered those locations too heavily defended, his network could instead target US and allied interests elsewhere in the world.
A separate document from August 1999 discussed the impact that arrests of Al-Qaeda operatives had reportedly had on the organisation. According to the assessment, the arrests had weakened the group’s capabilities.
“His organisation’s capabilities have suffered from the arrest of key operatives.”
The memo also noted that bin Laden had expressed anger over the arrests of senior members of his network, including his chief procurement officer and the head of his organisation in the UK.
Intelligence Warnings Before 9/11
The newly released material also highlights the limitations of the intelligence available to US agencies in the years before the September 11 attacks. Several assessments acknowledged that conclusions were being made despite “sparse, vague, and imperfect information.”
Some of the intelligence examined possible plans by bin Laden’s network to hijack aircraft. One assessment raised the possibility that a group could “fly an explosive-packed airplane into a US city.”
The September 11 attacks ultimately involved Al-Qaeda operatives hijacking four commercial aircraft. Two planes were flown into the World Trade Center towers in New York, a third struck the Pentagon, and the fourth crashed in Pennsylvania after passengers attempted to regain control of the aircraft.
The latest release consists of 71 partially redacted briefing notes, two of which had previously been made public. The documents contain intelligence assessments produced both before and immediately after the September 11 attacks.
The CIA said the release was intended to give Americans a glimpse into some of the agency’s most sensitive intelligence from the period before and immediately after what it described as one of the nation’s darkest moments.
According to the agency, the documents “trace the story of CIA analysts’ evolving understanding” of Al-Qaeda during the years leading up to and immediately following 9/11.
Taken together, the records provide further insight into what US intelligence agencies knew about the threat posed by bin Laden and his organisation before the September 11 attacks, while also illustrating how incomplete and uncertain that intelligence remained.
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