Crude oil prices are on course to surpass $80 per barrel this week following escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. The market reacted sharply after reports emerged of coordinated U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeting key Iranian nuclear facilities, raising fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
This development has prompted petroleum marketers in Nigeria to warn that petrol pump prices could climb to as high as ₦1,000 per litre in the coming weeks, driven by soaring crude prices and ongoing foreign exchange instability.
The United States recently carried out what it called a “preemptive defensive strike” on three major Iranian nuclear sites, with President Donald Trump declaring that Tehran’s critical infrastructure had been “obliterated.” This military action was synchronized with an Israeli offensive, leading Iran—OPEC’s third-largest oil producer—to promise retaliation.
In response, the Iranian parliament has reportedly approved plans to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. This announcement has caused Brent crude prices to surge and increased concerns about major disruptions to global oil supply.
“If crude oil hits $80 per barrel, depot prices may rise to ₦1,000 per litre,” said Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of PetroleumPrice.ng. “Last week’s price spike was triggered when Dangote temporarily halted sales, but the refinery has since resumed selling petrol at ₦880 per litre for two million litres.”
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has confirmed that the combined impact of rising global oil prices—fueled by the Iran-Israel crisis—and foreign exchange volatility is pushing up petrol costs in Nigeria.
As of Sunday, June 22, petrol prices at filling stations across the country ranged between ₦930 and ₦960 per litre. Lagos recorded the lowest prices at about ₦925, while northern regions faced higher prices ranging from ₦980 to ₦1,000 per litre due to increased transportation and logistics costs.
Chinedu Ukadike, IPMAN’s National Publicity Secretary, explained, “Crude oil prices have risen from $66 to around $77 per barrel. Both the exchange rate and international oil prices are driving up costs. Dangote and other importers have adjusted their prices accordingly.”
The Dangote Refinery increased its price from ₦825 to ₦880 per litre last Friday. Consequently, MRS and other stations selling Dangote petrol raised their pump prices to around ₦955 per litre in the South East and Northwest. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited also raised pump prices to ₦915 in Lagos and ₦945 in Abuja.
Other depot prices have adjusted as follows:
Rainoil: ₦900 (up from ₦850)
Fynefield: ₦930
Mainland Depot: ₦920
Sigmund: ₦920
Matrix (Warri): ₦910
NIPCO: ₦895 (up from ₦827)
Aiteo: ₦840
Ukadike warned that the increasing cost of lifting 50,000 litres of petrol is putting financial pressure on marketers, forcing them to reconsider their pricing strategies. He noted that although the Dangote refinery is local, it still sources crude at international prices, reducing its price advantage over imports.
“Unless there is intervention regarding the naira-to-crude pricing or stabilization of the forex rate, petrol prices are likely to remain volatile,” Ukadike concluded.
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