0
0
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that global fuel shortages—particularly involving diesel and jet fuel—are likely to persist for the foreseeable future.
Despite the announcement of a tentative ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to significant energy traffic, raising concerns about lasting “scars” on the global economy, according to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. Under normal conditions, the strait facilitates the passage of about 25% of the world’s seaborne crude oil and 20% of global LNG shipments. However, current data suggests that less than 10% of pre-war transit volume is now moving through the waterway.
Although a two-week truce was brokered by Pakistan on April 7, the maritime route remains heavily restricted. Reports indicate that only bulk carriers transporting dry cargo are currently being allowed through by Iranian authorities.
The IMF has confirmed that it will revise its 2026 global growth forecasts downward in its upcoming World Economic Outlook report. Before the conflict, the organization projected a growth rate of 3.3% for the year, but Georgieva noted that “even our most hopeful scenario now involves a growth downgrade.”
The conflict has already reduced global oil supplies by an estimated 13% and LNG supplies by 20%, triggering a supply shock that is driving inflation higher and placing additional strain on global supply chains.
To help stabilize the most affected economies, the IMF has announced plans to provide up to $50 billion in emergency financial assistance. The fund has already received multiple requests for balance-of-payments support from vulnerable, energy-importing nations with limited fiscal capacity to absorb the surge in energy costs.
Energy markets remain highly volatile. Brent crude was trading at around $95.86 per barrel on Friday—down from a peak of $120 during the conflict—but still significantly higher than pre-war levels. In the United Kingdom, North Sea oil prices recently hit record highs, with Forties Blend nearing $147 as markets react to continued uncertainty in the Middle East.
Georgieva warned that even if a lasting peace agreement is reached, there will be no “neat and clean return to the status quo.”
Beyond energy, the crisis is beginning to affect global food security, with an estimated 45 million additional people at risk due to rising fertilizer costs and transport disruptions. The IMF has urged governments to adopt defensive measures, including strengthening fiscal buffers and allowing greater currency flexibility, to navigate the ongoing economic strain.
